The day started with 2.2k SPUs and 285k ESUs traded on Globex and the disappointing 7:30 release of personal income. The RTH opening range was 1264.00 to 1264.70 followed by a quick drop to 1262.00 LOD. After a few initial sell programs the SPU regained its footing and rallied to 1268.80, sold off a few handles and at 9:30 was making new highs at 1273.30. A firmer NASDAQ and the EC up 200 off the lows added support to an over sold market. After the initial sell off the SPU took out buy stops and ran buy programs all day. We put this out on the IM: mrtopstep (Jun-27 08:50:42 AM): oversold + quiet = up and mrtopstep [Jun-27 09:26:37 AM]: 10 handle rule in effect 1262 to 1272. Then the sideways trade ensued as the SPU held 1269 area before stepping back up to new highs at 1274.60 1275.20, 1278.50, and the HOD 1280.00 around 1:49CT. As 1277 area was trading the 2:46 imbalance showed overall MOC (15:45:23) $ 265.99 M / -1,335.84 M – over $1bil for sale. On the 3:00 cash close the SPU traded 1274.70 before settling at 1276.30’s.
After weeks of failed Mutual Fund Mondays the S&P and NASDAQ had a big rally. Over the next few months we are going to start really breaking down the volumes so you understand exactly what we are looking at. If you think the volumes are bad now just think what they will look like during the Dog Days of Summer when half the crowd is not trading and the other half is on vacation. You heard it here first… less will be better in the coming months!
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Market In Focus Open and Closes
Open and closes are from 6/20
SILVER (SEP 11) Open – 35.995 Close – 36.084
Silver has stabilized a bit the past few sessions as Greek debt fears creep into the market. The dollar looks to be giving back all of last weeks’ gains, which is supportive to silver. Last Friday’s COT report showed that large specs are exiting out of commodities and silver was no different. We still see plenty of uncertainty that makes silver attractive as a safe haven asset. Our biggest fear moving forward with silver is that the dollar is at the low end of its range. We are bullish and are now looking to get long below 35.
10 YEAR NOTES (SEP 11) Open – 123’225 Close – 123’26
Notes are down a tad this morning as the indices look to have found some support. We expect things to be real quiet while the FOMC starts their meeting (with an announcement tomorrow) and the vote on Greece today. Economic data continues to come out weak both domestically and abroad. Many analysts predict that the Fed won’t raise rates until 2012. Although we see near term weakness, we are bullish and continue to hold our longs.
S&P (SEP 11) Open – 1265 Close – 1273.75
The market looks to have rebounded nicely after briefly testing the lows of January 31. We seem to be rallying this morning this morning on expectations that a deal will be reached in Greece. Again the Fed is starting their meeting today which will limit any move in the S&P, either way. We still see resistance at 1290 but see the S&P near the low end of its range. We are bearish and are looking to exit the rest of shorts below 1265.
SWISS FRANC (SEP 11) Open – 117.86 Close – 118.22
Not much is happening in the franc this morning as traders await the deal in Greece along with the impending Fed announcement. We have seen a dip in industrial production but exports are still strong. We do have many Swiss government officials warning that the appreciation of the franc eventually will hurt their economy. To us, that means intervention in the franc is coming. We are long but we are looking to offset about 70% of our longs at 119.50. We see strong resistance at 120 and believe we need some sort of geo-political event to push through there.
NATURAL GAS (JUL 11) Open – 430.1 Close – 431.7
Natural gas is up on the day, ending a six day losing streak. Demand for natural gas is weakening as nuclear power is back near capacity, along with milder temps. Natural gas has basically traded between 4-5 for the past two years and it looks like we are getting back near the low end of its range. We are bearish and are looking to offset our shorts at 430 now.
FOR FREE TWO TRIAL, PLEASE EMAIL YOUR NAME AND NUMBER TO hking@trinvex.com
SILVER (SEP 11) Open – 35.995 Close – 36.084
Silver has stabilized a bit the past few sessions as Greek debt fears creep into the market. The dollar looks to be giving back all of last weeks’ gains, which is supportive to silver. Last Friday’s COT report showed that large specs are exiting out of commodities and silver was no different. We still see plenty of uncertainty that makes silver attractive as a safe haven asset. Our biggest fear moving forward with silver is that the dollar is at the low end of its range. We are bullish and are now looking to get long below 35.
10 YEAR NOTES (SEP 11) Open – 123’225 Close – 123’26
Notes are down a tad this morning as the indices look to have found some support. We expect things to be real quiet while the FOMC starts their meeting (with an announcement tomorrow) and the vote on Greece today. Economic data continues to come out weak both domestically and abroad. Many analysts predict that the Fed won’t raise rates until 2012. Although we see near term weakness, we are bullish and continue to hold our longs.
S&P (SEP 11) Open – 1265 Close – 1273.75
The market looks to have rebounded nicely after briefly testing the lows of January 31. We seem to be rallying this morning this morning on expectations that a deal will be reached in Greece. Again the Fed is starting their meeting today which will limit any move in the S&P, either way. We still see resistance at 1290 but see the S&P near the low end of its range. We are bearish and are looking to exit the rest of shorts below 1265.
SWISS FRANC (SEP 11) Open – 117.86 Close – 118.22
Not much is happening in the franc this morning as traders await the deal in Greece along with the impending Fed announcement. We have seen a dip in industrial production but exports are still strong. We do have many Swiss government officials warning that the appreciation of the franc eventually will hurt their economy. To us, that means intervention in the franc is coming. We are long but we are looking to offset about 70% of our longs at 119.50. We see strong resistance at 120 and believe we need some sort of geo-political event to push through there.
NATURAL GAS (JUL 11) Open – 430.1 Close – 431.7
Natural gas is up on the day, ending a six day losing streak. Demand for natural gas is weakening as nuclear power is back near capacity, along with milder temps. Natural gas has basically traded between 4-5 for the past two years and it looks like we are getting back near the low end of its range. We are bearish and are looking to offset our shorts at 430 now.
FOR FREE TWO TRIAL, PLEASE EMAIL YOUR NAME AND NUMBER TO hking@trinvex.com
Silver, 10 year notes, coffee, S&P, Swiss Franc and natural gas
Open and closes are from 6/15
SILVER (SEP 11) Open – 35.52 Close – 35.421
In the wake of the impressive rally in the dollar the past two sessions, silver is just mildly lower. Stocks of silver at Comex have dipped below the all important psychological level of 100 million ounces, but not by much. Strong demand from Asia has been supportive to the market. Debt fears in Europe are lending support. Fundamentally, we see demand for silver as strong both industrially and as a safe haven asset. Talk of the Feds raising rates will limit upside movement but we are still bullish. We are looking to get long below 34.
10 YEAR NOTES (SEP 11) Open – 122’18 Close – 123’22
It has been a crazy past couple of sessions for the bond futures. Weak TIC numbers coupled with the end of the buyback program look to have started to find their way into the notes. Technically speaking, the note is making new contract highs today and if it can close above 124 would signal a new bull leg in our opinion. The indices have been weak and we are seeing capital flow into bonds. We are bullish and long.
COFFEE (SEP 11) Open – 271.15 Close – 265.85
Coffee is trading at the low end of its range today and looks like it wants to test the 260 level again. The market has started to price in the possibility of a frost in Brazil and lower production from Columbia. The dollar rally of the past few sessions is also weighing on prices. We see potential supply disruptions out of South America as they go into their off-cycle harvest. We are bullish and continue to hold our legs, although any violation of 255 could trigger more selling.
S&P (SEP 11) Open – 1283.75 Close – 1260
The S&P gave back of all of Tuesdays’ gains yesterday. Jobless claims and housing starts come out within range today, but we are seeing weakness in the banking sector. The VIX is at its highest level since mid March. We see this market grinding lower until it hits support at 1240. We did offset some of our shorts at the 1253-1255 level. Our new target for our shorts is 1245.
SWISS FRANC (SEP 11) Open – 118.37 Close – 117.25
The Swiss Franc has sold off a tad the past few days which is not surprising given the recent 3.5% rally in the dollar. The SNB left rates unchanged but said that they were concerned with the franc’s appreciation. Most analysts agree that the SNB will most likely raise rates in September. The uncertainty with Greece still makes the franc attractive as a flight to quality asset. We are bullish and we did initiate some new longs near 117. We see strong resistance at 120.
NATURAL GAS (JUL 11) Open – 457.3 Close – 457.7
Milder weather and a stronger dollar have sent natural gas down nearly forty cents the past few sessions. We are also seeing shipments of natural gas decline as the weather looks to have cooled off in the Southeast. There is some spillover selling coming from crude, as it has broken some key technical support. We are bearish and see natural gas grinding down back to the low end of its rnage, near 400, eventually. We have a profit target of 420.
FOR FREE TWO TRIAL, PLEASE EMAIL YOUR NAME AND NUMBER TO hking@trinvex.com
SILVER (SEP 11) Open – 35.52 Close – 35.421
In the wake of the impressive rally in the dollar the past two sessions, silver is just mildly lower. Stocks of silver at Comex have dipped below the all important psychological level of 100 million ounces, but not by much. Strong demand from Asia has been supportive to the market. Debt fears in Europe are lending support. Fundamentally, we see demand for silver as strong both industrially and as a safe haven asset. Talk of the Feds raising rates will limit upside movement but we are still bullish. We are looking to get long below 34.
10 YEAR NOTES (SEP 11) Open – 122’18 Close – 123’22
It has been a crazy past couple of sessions for the bond futures. Weak TIC numbers coupled with the end of the buyback program look to have started to find their way into the notes. Technically speaking, the note is making new contract highs today and if it can close above 124 would signal a new bull leg in our opinion. The indices have been weak and we are seeing capital flow into bonds. We are bullish and long.
COFFEE (SEP 11) Open – 271.15 Close – 265.85
Coffee is trading at the low end of its range today and looks like it wants to test the 260 level again. The market has started to price in the possibility of a frost in Brazil and lower production from Columbia. The dollar rally of the past few sessions is also weighing on prices. We see potential supply disruptions out of South America as they go into their off-cycle harvest. We are bullish and continue to hold our legs, although any violation of 255 could trigger more selling.
S&P (SEP 11) Open – 1283.75 Close – 1260
The S&P gave back of all of Tuesdays’ gains yesterday. Jobless claims and housing starts come out within range today, but we are seeing weakness in the banking sector. The VIX is at its highest level since mid March. We see this market grinding lower until it hits support at 1240. We did offset some of our shorts at the 1253-1255 level. Our new target for our shorts is 1245.
SWISS FRANC (SEP 11) Open – 118.37 Close – 117.25
The Swiss Franc has sold off a tad the past few days which is not surprising given the recent 3.5% rally in the dollar. The SNB left rates unchanged but said that they were concerned with the franc’s appreciation. Most analysts agree that the SNB will most likely raise rates in September. The uncertainty with Greece still makes the franc attractive as a flight to quality asset. We are bullish and we did initiate some new longs near 117. We see strong resistance at 120.
NATURAL GAS (JUL 11) Open – 457.3 Close – 457.7
Milder weather and a stronger dollar have sent natural gas down nearly forty cents the past few sessions. We are also seeing shipments of natural gas decline as the weather looks to have cooled off in the Southeast. There is some spillover selling coming from crude, as it has broken some key technical support. We are bearish and see natural gas grinding down back to the low end of its rnage, near 400, eventually. We have a profit target of 420.
FOR FREE TWO TRIAL, PLEASE EMAIL YOUR NAME AND NUMBER TO hking@trinvex.com
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Money Back into commodities
If you want to know what going on in the S&P over the last few days we came out last Wednesday saying there would be new money going back into commodities and stocks at the end and the beginning of the month and yesterday the markets got a KICKER when the news that another bail out for Greece was being considered. Here is our formula for the rally: Everyone short + month end money + buy stops in the S&P 500 = BUY PROGRAMs !!!!! See you tomorrow..
Friday, May 27, 2011
Month End Mark up for Stocks and Commodities
Mr Topstep Danny Riley talks about how the S&P 500 futures "caught a bid" going into Wednesdays trade, was up a total of 13 handles the last few days and was up 5.50 handles this morning. Riley points out that money is going back into stocks, commodities as the May month end comes to a close. Riley also points out - Bill Gross on CNBC talking about defaults in the US further debt problems in the Euro Zone and how strange it is that the markets were rallying.
Subscribe to Mr Topstep Group in Youtube for daily videos from the CME Floor.
1319’s 50DAY PASSING GRADE
INDEX SWITCH:
The Standard & Poor’s announced that on June 3rd 2011 AMB Property Corp. will replace ProLogis in the S&P 500 index,. AMB is acquiring ProLogis in a deal expected to be completed on or about that date pending final approvals. AMB Property will be renamed ProLogis Inc. and will trade under the ticker symbol PLD.
“1319’s 50DAY PASSING GRADE”
Coming into yesterdays trade, the Euro currency was firm in overnight trade on reports of China’s appetite for Portugal’s debt. Those gains were surrendered after comments by the head of Euro-Zone finance ministers JC Juncker – “the European Union would be unable to step in if the International Monetary Fund withholds its portion of the installment”. Trading on the headlines tends to be volatile…The equities have been trading sideways to higher over the last couple of days, only to be slammed on the close. The recent trend of softening economic data and macroeconomics has been weighing on traders optimism as global economic growth/stability continues to show signs of stress. Over the last week or so the bulls have not rolled over – as the morning to mid day strength has flipped much of the selling momentum. Yesterday’s low in the VIX was15.90. But those late day downside spikes make being long difficult starring at the ominous afternoon fade. During the holiday weekend we will miss the Euro Zone headlines… Bring on the – three day banger all ready!!!
Yesterday started with 358k Emini, 2.1k SPM traded on Globex and a RTH open range 1315.00 -1315.50, down just over one handle. The initial move was testing 1319.50 day avg area before being rejected, back and filling to the LOD 1312.70. Mid morning was sideways to higher in the 1313 -1317 area before catching a bid and stepping higher through the early afternoon as the HOD 1327.30 traded by 1:45CT. The following hour was sideways to slightly lower as the bulls took some profits and stood out of the way of pending cash close. 29 /30 DJIA were for sale – and the cash imbalance showed $500M to sell pushing the SPM to 1323.50 area before Goldman stepped up and flipped the shorts buying about 1,100 SPM on the 3:00 cash close. Settlement was 1326.50.
Today’s Mr. TopStep
__________________________________________________
OUR VIEW
Friday? End of the month money going into stocks and commodities, everyone short and a 3 day weekend spells slow and to the upside. We said yesterday that overall we don’t like the markets but that we thought there were going to be some month end buying around and on the instant message Mr. TopStep pointed out that it was too slow to be a seller and we put out Top Notch’s number at 1328.70 as out upside objective (HOD was 1227.30). If you a BEAR you have to be concerned about how firm the markets are acting. And the BULL’s are cheering that the recent down slid onslaught has at least subsided for now. In the last 2 day the SPM is up 12.9 handles. It is 5:30 am the SPM is up 1 handle at 1327.50, crude is up .32 cents at $100.55 and the EC is trading 142.33, up , up 96. The way we see it the big tip off that the SPM was going to rally was how firm the EURO was and its doing it again today. In Asia 9 out of 10 markets closed higher. In Europe 10 out of 10 markets are trading higher. Our view? Is simple; if you make a little early quit. After Europe closes the markets are going to get real quiet. If we had to trade we would lean to buying weakness. Keep an eye on the 10 handle rule today and use stops.
Have a great 3 day weekend and we want to thank everyone for being part Mr.TopStep!
For more information & interest on our MTS IM Service please view http://mrtopstep.com/imservice/ and signup info https://mrtopstep.com/amember/signup.php
__________________________________________________
FROM THE FLOOR / NEWS & OBSERVATIONS
TOPNOTCH – These index futures signaled early on a trade like this could be in the cards. The fact that neither one could take out yesterday’s lows has led to an assault to yesterdays highs and as of this writing, the nasdaq has obliged taking out its high of 2321.50 from yesterday and on its way go a stop target of 2325.50. If stops are triggered , this future will look to test its daily fib of 2330.75, followed by a tough resistance level of 2333.50. One must remember though that the overall objective is its settle gap price of 2343.50.
The S&P bounced from its initial low of 1312.70 to a high of 1317.20, rejecting its downside # price of 1317.80 and initial high of 1319.00. When this future went back to assault that first low, it stopped dead at that same low of 1312.70. That double bottom was huge!!! This then led to a high of 1317.40, which once again flip-flopped that open range. However, when this future made a low of 1315.20, it held its opening range and that was all she wrote as new highs have been seen at the 1322.10 price. I would think another move higher is coming as this future is still in an inside trading range from yesterday. Looking now to test the 1323.30 price, followed by objectives of the settle gap price of 1327.80, the daily fib of 1330.00, and key resistance of 1331.80. Not that I like picking tops, but I would give the daily fib to that 1331.80 area a good shot to short. Thinking a 5-6 handle break will occur if that area is tested.
The bonds never looked back after taking out its initial high of 125.16. It’s first fib objective was seen of 125.29 and still is the high. This future hasn’t been able to trade back under its earlier week high of 125.20, but a turn comes if a offer goes under 125.19. The 125.12 price will then be key and another turn there could see the 125.06 price. A move north and tests of 126.05 and key resistance target of 126.16. & year note auction could lead the next move for the bonds.
________________________________________________
HEARD ON THE MTS IM:
eubie (06:19:34 AM): YEST RANGE 1309.00′s / 1324.20′s (FV-1.90 1318.50 CASH / 1316.60 SETTLE)
george (07:59:51 AM): long weekend ahead looks like the “flight to quality” ;( buying of treasuries is getting an early start
eubie (08:34:16 AM): DXY -.66% / stocks shud be up?
george (08:45:18 AM): medley story going around saying the fed will stop the reinvestment of mortgage proceeds around Aug or Sept meetings
eubie (09:13:11 AM): BBands off screen 1312.50′s
MTS DESK (09:19:34 AM): do not think so but nervous shorts – stops above OR 1316 area
eubie (10:04:01 AM): BBands off screen 1313 now / potential 2X min charts 1312.50′s
randy (10:40:56 AM): 3 day pivot and Opening print stacked on 1315′s….important test here now
george (10:55:42 AM): long weekend, buyback, auction, all add up to a test of the important 123.20 level in tym1
MTS DESK (11:25:38 PM): well into the NY lunch time / 40 locals in the pit / 4.7k SPMs and a total of 1.34mil ESMs have traded / roll time for the JUNE contracts in the SEPT / not going to help the day traders SPM/U is –540@-535 600 by 2k thinking up all day the -540s trade 1.1k times / firm and slow here traders almanac says tomorrow is traditionally thin and slow / say hello to the 4 day weekend
eubie (11:50:30 PM): + 1133 tics
eubie (11:55:14 PM): BBands going off screen 1322.50/1323′s / 10 HANDLE RULE IN EFFECT /
MTS DESK (11:22:17 PM): there will be a pull back but there is no fighting this / 3 week a 3 days of down going into the long weekend and we are seeing a steady stream of short covering mixed in in with buy stops and buy program
bob (12:35:37 PM): why was he raising rates in the first place? he couldn’t see commodities coming down? that rate hike was clearly in response the the fear….if he had only been here in the MTS room and listened to Eubie he would have known commodities would be coming down – come on Trichet, come to MrTopstep!
_________________________________________________
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Mr Topstep Economic Calendar
_________________________________________________
CONTRIBUTORS’ CORNER
“UNDER THE HOOD IN THE S/P’S”
Roger Volz / BGC
SP 500 futures Very Short Term (VST) 5 min chart. VST OB > 1326.50 …..VST OS < 1312.50
SP 500 Futures Daily working technical model…..lower lows lower highs leaves bulls in search for start of higher low base. Our previous momentum loss line at the 34-day SMA at 1332.30 now becomes the top of the immediate range. Charts would move into retest of lows mode with retake of the next downside break line at 1309.80 Close below this line exposes an air pocket to 1297.50 where the next ledge of grouped support lay. The first ledge of grouped resistances at 1324.50 holding underside test for day 3
SP 500 Futures Weekly working technical model….currently testing our key to the uptrend from Sept 2010 at the 21-wk SMA (light blue) at 1313.55. Support follows at 1307 for continuation to 1287. Resistances firm at 1333 and 1342
_________________________________________________
The Standard & Poor’s announced that on June 3rd 2011 AMB Property Corp. will replace ProLogis in the S&P 500 index,. AMB is acquiring ProLogis in a deal expected to be completed on or about that date pending final approvals. AMB Property will be renamed ProLogis Inc. and will trade under the ticker symbol PLD.
“1319’s 50DAY PASSING GRADE”
Coming into yesterdays trade, the Euro currency was firm in overnight trade on reports of China’s appetite for Portugal’s debt. Those gains were surrendered after comments by the head of Euro-Zone finance ministers JC Juncker – “the European Union would be unable to step in if the International Monetary Fund withholds its portion of the installment”. Trading on the headlines tends to be volatile…The equities have been trading sideways to higher over the last couple of days, only to be slammed on the close. The recent trend of softening economic data and macroeconomics has been weighing on traders optimism as global economic growth/stability continues to show signs of stress. Over the last week or so the bulls have not rolled over – as the morning to mid day strength has flipped much of the selling momentum. Yesterday’s low in the VIX was15.90. But those late day downside spikes make being long difficult starring at the ominous afternoon fade. During the holiday weekend we will miss the Euro Zone headlines… Bring on the – three day banger all ready!!!
Yesterday started with 358k Emini, 2.1k SPM traded on Globex and a RTH open range 1315.00 -1315.50, down just over one handle. The initial move was testing 1319.50 day avg area before being rejected, back and filling to the LOD 1312.70. Mid morning was sideways to higher in the 1313 -1317 area before catching a bid and stepping higher through the early afternoon as the HOD 1327.30 traded by 1:45CT. The following hour was sideways to slightly lower as the bulls took some profits and stood out of the way of pending cash close. 29 /30 DJIA were for sale – and the cash imbalance showed $500M to sell pushing the SPM to 1323.50 area before Goldman stepped up and flipped the shorts buying about 1,100 SPM on the 3:00 cash close. Settlement was 1326.50.
Today’s Mr. TopStep
The Risk-off in front of the long Holiday weekend trade
For more information & interest on our MTS IM Service please view Market Flow Services and signup info Members info
__________________________________________________
OUR VIEW
Friday? End of the month money going into stocks and commodities, everyone short and a 3 day weekend spells slow and to the upside. We said yesterday that overall we don’t like the markets but that we thought there were going to be some month end buying around and on the instant message Mr. TopStep pointed out that it was too slow to be a seller and we put out Top Notch’s number at 1328.70 as out upside objective (HOD was 1227.30). If you a BEAR you have to be concerned about how firm the markets are acting. And the BULL’s are cheering that the recent down slid onslaught has at least subsided for now. In the last 2 day the SPM is up 12.9 handles. It is 5:30 am the SPM is up 1 handle at 1327.50, crude is up .32 cents at $100.55 and the EC is trading 142.33, up , up 96. The way we see it the big tip off that the SPM was going to rally was how firm the EURO was and its doing it again today. In Asia 9 out of 10 markets closed higher. In Europe 10 out of 10 markets are trading higher. Our view? Is simple; if you make a little early quit. After Europe closes the markets are going to get real quiet. If we had to trade we would lean to buying weakness. Keep an eye on the 10 handle rule today and use stops.
Have a great 3 day weekend and we want to thank everyone for being part Mr.TopStep!
For more information & interest on our MTS IM Service please view http://mrtopstep.com/imservice/ and signup info https://mrtopstep.com/amember/signup.php
__________________________________________________
FROM THE FLOOR / NEWS & OBSERVATIONS
TOPNOTCH – These index futures signaled early on a trade like this could be in the cards. The fact that neither one could take out yesterday’s lows has led to an assault to yesterdays highs and as of this writing, the nasdaq has obliged taking out its high of 2321.50 from yesterday and on its way go a stop target of 2325.50. If stops are triggered , this future will look to test its daily fib of 2330.75, followed by a tough resistance level of 2333.50. One must remember though that the overall objective is its settle gap price of 2343.50.
The S&P bounced from its initial low of 1312.70 to a high of 1317.20, rejecting its downside # price of 1317.80 and initial high of 1319.00. When this future went back to assault that first low, it stopped dead at that same low of 1312.70. That double bottom was huge!!! This then led to a high of 1317.40, which once again flip-flopped that open range. However, when this future made a low of 1315.20, it held its opening range and that was all she wrote as new highs have been seen at the 1322.10 price. I would think another move higher is coming as this future is still in an inside trading range from yesterday. Looking now to test the 1323.30 price, followed by objectives of the settle gap price of 1327.80, the daily fib of 1330.00, and key resistance of 1331.80. Not that I like picking tops, but I would give the daily fib to that 1331.80 area a good shot to short. Thinking a 5-6 handle break will occur if that area is tested.
The bonds never looked back after taking out its initial high of 125.16. It’s first fib objective was seen of 125.29 and still is the high. This future hasn’t been able to trade back under its earlier week high of 125.20, but a turn comes if a offer goes under 125.19. The 125.12 price will then be key and another turn there could see the 125.06 price. A move north and tests of 126.05 and key resistance target of 126.16. & year note auction could lead the next move for the bonds.
________________________________________________
HEARD ON THE MTS IM:
eubie (06:19:34 AM): YEST RANGE 1309.00′s / 1324.20′s (FV-1.90 1318.50 CASH / 1316.60 SETTLE)
george (07:59:51 AM): long weekend ahead looks like the “flight to quality” ;( buying of treasuries is getting an early start
eubie (08:34:16 AM): DXY -.66% / stocks shud be up?
george (08:45:18 AM): medley story going around saying the fed will stop the reinvestment of mortgage proceeds around Aug or Sept meetings
eubie (09:13:11 AM): BBands off screen 1312.50′s
MTS DESK (09:19:34 AM): do not think so but nervous shorts – stops above OR 1316 area
eubie (10:04:01 AM): BBands off screen 1313 now / potential 2X min charts 1312.50′s
randy (10:40:56 AM): 3 day pivot and Opening print stacked on 1315′s….important test here now
george (10:55:42 AM): long weekend, buyback, auction, all add up to a test of the important 123.20 level in tym1
MTS DESK (11:25:38 PM): well into the NY lunch time / 40 locals in the pit / 4.7k SPMs and a total of 1.34mil ESMs have traded / roll time for the JUNE contracts in the SEPT / not going to help the day traders SPM/U is –540@-535 600 by 2k thinking up all day the -540s trade 1.1k times / firm and slow here traders almanac says tomorrow is traditionally thin and slow / say hello to the 4 day weekend
eubie (11:50:30 PM): + 1133 tics
eubie (11:55:14 PM): BBands going off screen 1322.50/1323′s / 10 HANDLE RULE IN EFFECT /
MTS DESK (11:22:17 PM): there will be a pull back but there is no fighting this / 3 week a 3 days of down going into the long weekend and we are seeing a steady stream of short covering mixed in in with buy stops and buy program
bob (12:35:37 PM): why was he raising rates in the first place? he couldn’t see commodities coming down? that rate hike was clearly in response the the fear….if he had only been here in the MTS room and listened to Eubie he would have known commodities would be coming down – come on Trichet, come to MrTopstep!
_________________________________________________
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Mr Topstep Economic Calendar
_________________________________________________
CONTRIBUTORS’ CORNER
“UNDER THE HOOD IN THE S/P’S”
Roger Volz / BGC
SP 500 futures Very Short Term (VST) 5 min chart. VST OB > 1326.50 …..VST OS < 1312.50
SP 500 Futures Daily working technical model…..lower lows lower highs leaves bulls in search for start of higher low base. Our previous momentum loss line at the 34-day SMA at 1332.30 now becomes the top of the immediate range. Charts would move into retest of lows mode with retake of the next downside break line at 1309.80 Close below this line exposes an air pocket to 1297.50 where the next ledge of grouped support lay. The first ledge of grouped resistances at 1324.50 holding underside test for day 3
SP 500 Futures Weekly working technical model….currently testing our key to the uptrend from Sept 2010 at the 21-wk SMA (light blue) at 1313.55. Support follows at 1307 for continuation to 1287. Resistances firm at 1333 and 1342
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