Market In Focus Open and Closes

Open and closes are from 6/20

SILVER (SEP 11) Open – 35.995 Close – 36.084
Silver has stabilized a bit the past few sessions as Greek debt fears creep into the market. The dollar looks to be giving back all of last weeks’ gains, which is supportive to silver. Last Friday’s COT report showed that large specs are exiting out of commodities and silver was no different. We still see plenty of uncertainty that makes silver attractive as a safe haven asset. Our biggest fear moving forward with silver is that the dollar is at the low end of its range. We are bullish and are now looking to get long below 35.

10 YEAR NOTES (SEP 11) Open – 123’225 Close – 123’26
Notes are down a tad this morning as the indices look to have found some support. We expect things to be real quiet while the FOMC starts their meeting (with an announcement tomorrow) and the vote on Greece today. Economic data continues to come out weak both domestically and abroad. Many analysts predict that the Fed won’t raise rates until 2012. Although we see near term weakness, we are bullish and continue to hold our longs.

S&P (SEP 11) Open – 1265 Close – 1273.75
The market looks to have rebounded nicely after briefly testing the lows of January 31. We seem to be rallying this morning this morning on expectations that a deal will be reached in Greece. Again the Fed is starting their meeting today which will limit any move in the S&P, either way. We still see resistance at 1290 but see the S&P near the low end of its range. We are bearish and are looking to exit the rest of shorts below 1265.

SWISS FRANC (SEP 11) Open – 117.86 Close – 118.22
Not much is happening in the franc this morning as traders await the deal in Greece along with the impending Fed announcement. We have seen a dip in industrial production but exports are still strong. We do have many Swiss government officials warning that the appreciation of the franc eventually will hurt their economy. To us, that means intervention in the franc is coming. We are long but we are looking to offset about 70% of our longs at 119.50. We see strong resistance at 120 and believe we need some sort of geo-political event to push through there.

NATURAL GAS (JUL 11) Open – 430.1 Close – 431.7
Natural gas is up on the day, ending a six day losing streak. Demand for natural gas is weakening as nuclear power is back near capacity, along with milder temps. Natural gas has basically traded between 4-5 for the past two years and it looks like we are getting back near the low end of its range. We are bearish and are looking to offset our shorts at 430 now.


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