The day started with 2.2k SPUs and 285k ESUs traded on Globex and the disappointing 7:30 release of personal income. The RTH opening range was 1264.00 to 1264.70 followed by a quick drop to 1262.00 LOD. After a few initial sell programs the SPU regained its footing and rallied to 1268.80, sold off a few handles and at 9:30 was making new highs at 1273.30. A firmer NASDAQ and the EC up 200 off the lows added support to an over sold market. After the initial sell off the SPU took out buy stops and ran buy programs all day. We put this out on the IM: mrtopstep (Jun-27 08:50:42 AM): oversold + quiet = up and mrtopstep [Jun-27 09:26:37 AM]: 10 handle rule in effect 1262 to 1272. Then the sideways trade ensued as the SPU held 1269 area before stepping back up to new highs at 1274.60 1275.20, 1278.50, and the HOD 1280.00 around 1:49CT. As 1277 area was trading the 2:46 imbalance showed overall MOC (15:45:23) $ 265.99 M / -1,335.84 M – over $1bil for sale. On the 3:00 cash close the SPU traded 1274.70 before settling at 1276.30’s.
After weeks of failed Mutual Fund Mondays the S&P and NASDAQ had a big rally. Over the next few months we are going to start really breaking down the volumes so you understand exactly what we are looking at. If you think the volumes are bad now just think what they will look like during the Dog Days of Summer when half the crowd is not trading and the other half is on vacation. You heard it here first… less will be better in the coming months!
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Market In Focus Open and Closes
Open and closes are from 6/20
SILVER (SEP 11) Open – 35.995 Close – 36.084
Silver has stabilized a bit the past few sessions as Greek debt fears creep into the market. The dollar looks to be giving back all of last weeks’ gains, which is supportive to silver. Last Friday’s COT report showed that large specs are exiting out of commodities and silver was no different. We still see plenty of uncertainty that makes silver attractive as a safe haven asset. Our biggest fear moving forward with silver is that the dollar is at the low end of its range. We are bullish and are now looking to get long below 35.
10 YEAR NOTES (SEP 11) Open – 123’225 Close – 123’26
Notes are down a tad this morning as the indices look to have found some support. We expect things to be real quiet while the FOMC starts their meeting (with an announcement tomorrow) and the vote on Greece today. Economic data continues to come out weak both domestically and abroad. Many analysts predict that the Fed won’t raise rates until 2012. Although we see near term weakness, we are bullish and continue to hold our longs.
S&P (SEP 11) Open – 1265 Close – 1273.75
The market looks to have rebounded nicely after briefly testing the lows of January 31. We seem to be rallying this morning this morning on expectations that a deal will be reached in Greece. Again the Fed is starting their meeting today which will limit any move in the S&P, either way. We still see resistance at 1290 but see the S&P near the low end of its range. We are bearish and are looking to exit the rest of shorts below 1265.
SWISS FRANC (SEP 11) Open – 117.86 Close – 118.22
Not much is happening in the franc this morning as traders await the deal in Greece along with the impending Fed announcement. We have seen a dip in industrial production but exports are still strong. We do have many Swiss government officials warning that the appreciation of the franc eventually will hurt their economy. To us, that means intervention in the franc is coming. We are long but we are looking to offset about 70% of our longs at 119.50. We see strong resistance at 120 and believe we need some sort of geo-political event to push through there.
NATURAL GAS (JUL 11) Open – 430.1 Close – 431.7
Natural gas is up on the day, ending a six day losing streak. Demand for natural gas is weakening as nuclear power is back near capacity, along with milder temps. Natural gas has basically traded between 4-5 for the past two years and it looks like we are getting back near the low end of its range. We are bearish and are looking to offset our shorts at 430 now.
FOR FREE TWO TRIAL, PLEASE EMAIL YOUR NAME AND NUMBER TO hking@trinvex.com
SILVER (SEP 11) Open – 35.995 Close – 36.084
Silver has stabilized a bit the past few sessions as Greek debt fears creep into the market. The dollar looks to be giving back all of last weeks’ gains, which is supportive to silver. Last Friday’s COT report showed that large specs are exiting out of commodities and silver was no different. We still see plenty of uncertainty that makes silver attractive as a safe haven asset. Our biggest fear moving forward with silver is that the dollar is at the low end of its range. We are bullish and are now looking to get long below 35.
10 YEAR NOTES (SEP 11) Open – 123’225 Close – 123’26
Notes are down a tad this morning as the indices look to have found some support. We expect things to be real quiet while the FOMC starts their meeting (with an announcement tomorrow) and the vote on Greece today. Economic data continues to come out weak both domestically and abroad. Many analysts predict that the Fed won’t raise rates until 2012. Although we see near term weakness, we are bullish and continue to hold our longs.
S&P (SEP 11) Open – 1265 Close – 1273.75
The market looks to have rebounded nicely after briefly testing the lows of January 31. We seem to be rallying this morning this morning on expectations that a deal will be reached in Greece. Again the Fed is starting their meeting today which will limit any move in the S&P, either way. We still see resistance at 1290 but see the S&P near the low end of its range. We are bearish and are looking to exit the rest of shorts below 1265.
SWISS FRANC (SEP 11) Open – 117.86 Close – 118.22
Not much is happening in the franc this morning as traders await the deal in Greece along with the impending Fed announcement. We have seen a dip in industrial production but exports are still strong. We do have many Swiss government officials warning that the appreciation of the franc eventually will hurt their economy. To us, that means intervention in the franc is coming. We are long but we are looking to offset about 70% of our longs at 119.50. We see strong resistance at 120 and believe we need some sort of geo-political event to push through there.
NATURAL GAS (JUL 11) Open – 430.1 Close – 431.7
Natural gas is up on the day, ending a six day losing streak. Demand for natural gas is weakening as nuclear power is back near capacity, along with milder temps. Natural gas has basically traded between 4-5 for the past two years and it looks like we are getting back near the low end of its range. We are bearish and are looking to offset our shorts at 430 now.
FOR FREE TWO TRIAL, PLEASE EMAIL YOUR NAME AND NUMBER TO hking@trinvex.com
Silver, 10 year notes, coffee, S&P, Swiss Franc and natural gas
Open and closes are from 6/15
SILVER (SEP 11) Open – 35.52 Close – 35.421
In the wake of the impressive rally in the dollar the past two sessions, silver is just mildly lower. Stocks of silver at Comex have dipped below the all important psychological level of 100 million ounces, but not by much. Strong demand from Asia has been supportive to the market. Debt fears in Europe are lending support. Fundamentally, we see demand for silver as strong both industrially and as a safe haven asset. Talk of the Feds raising rates will limit upside movement but we are still bullish. We are looking to get long below 34.
10 YEAR NOTES (SEP 11) Open – 122’18 Close – 123’22
It has been a crazy past couple of sessions for the bond futures. Weak TIC numbers coupled with the end of the buyback program look to have started to find their way into the notes. Technically speaking, the note is making new contract highs today and if it can close above 124 would signal a new bull leg in our opinion. The indices have been weak and we are seeing capital flow into bonds. We are bullish and long.
COFFEE (SEP 11) Open – 271.15 Close – 265.85
Coffee is trading at the low end of its range today and looks like it wants to test the 260 level again. The market has started to price in the possibility of a frost in Brazil and lower production from Columbia. The dollar rally of the past few sessions is also weighing on prices. We see potential supply disruptions out of South America as they go into their off-cycle harvest. We are bullish and continue to hold our legs, although any violation of 255 could trigger more selling.
S&P (SEP 11) Open – 1283.75 Close – 1260
The S&P gave back of all of Tuesdays’ gains yesterday. Jobless claims and housing starts come out within range today, but we are seeing weakness in the banking sector. The VIX is at its highest level since mid March. We see this market grinding lower until it hits support at 1240. We did offset some of our shorts at the 1253-1255 level. Our new target for our shorts is 1245.
SWISS FRANC (SEP 11) Open – 118.37 Close – 117.25
The Swiss Franc has sold off a tad the past few days which is not surprising given the recent 3.5% rally in the dollar. The SNB left rates unchanged but said that they were concerned with the franc’s appreciation. Most analysts agree that the SNB will most likely raise rates in September. The uncertainty with Greece still makes the franc attractive as a flight to quality asset. We are bullish and we did initiate some new longs near 117. We see strong resistance at 120.
NATURAL GAS (JUL 11) Open – 457.3 Close – 457.7
Milder weather and a stronger dollar have sent natural gas down nearly forty cents the past few sessions. We are also seeing shipments of natural gas decline as the weather looks to have cooled off in the Southeast. There is some spillover selling coming from crude, as it has broken some key technical support. We are bearish and see natural gas grinding down back to the low end of its rnage, near 400, eventually. We have a profit target of 420.
FOR FREE TWO TRIAL, PLEASE EMAIL YOUR NAME AND NUMBER TO hking@trinvex.com
SILVER (SEP 11) Open – 35.52 Close – 35.421
In the wake of the impressive rally in the dollar the past two sessions, silver is just mildly lower. Stocks of silver at Comex have dipped below the all important psychological level of 100 million ounces, but not by much. Strong demand from Asia has been supportive to the market. Debt fears in Europe are lending support. Fundamentally, we see demand for silver as strong both industrially and as a safe haven asset. Talk of the Feds raising rates will limit upside movement but we are still bullish. We are looking to get long below 34.
10 YEAR NOTES (SEP 11) Open – 122’18 Close – 123’22
It has been a crazy past couple of sessions for the bond futures. Weak TIC numbers coupled with the end of the buyback program look to have started to find their way into the notes. Technically speaking, the note is making new contract highs today and if it can close above 124 would signal a new bull leg in our opinion. The indices have been weak and we are seeing capital flow into bonds. We are bullish and long.
COFFEE (SEP 11) Open – 271.15 Close – 265.85
Coffee is trading at the low end of its range today and looks like it wants to test the 260 level again. The market has started to price in the possibility of a frost in Brazil and lower production from Columbia. The dollar rally of the past few sessions is also weighing on prices. We see potential supply disruptions out of South America as they go into their off-cycle harvest. We are bullish and continue to hold our legs, although any violation of 255 could trigger more selling.
S&P (SEP 11) Open – 1283.75 Close – 1260
The S&P gave back of all of Tuesdays’ gains yesterday. Jobless claims and housing starts come out within range today, but we are seeing weakness in the banking sector. The VIX is at its highest level since mid March. We see this market grinding lower until it hits support at 1240. We did offset some of our shorts at the 1253-1255 level. Our new target for our shorts is 1245.
SWISS FRANC (SEP 11) Open – 118.37 Close – 117.25
The Swiss Franc has sold off a tad the past few days which is not surprising given the recent 3.5% rally in the dollar. The SNB left rates unchanged but said that they were concerned with the franc’s appreciation. Most analysts agree that the SNB will most likely raise rates in September. The uncertainty with Greece still makes the franc attractive as a flight to quality asset. We are bullish and we did initiate some new longs near 117. We see strong resistance at 120.
NATURAL GAS (JUL 11) Open – 457.3 Close – 457.7
Milder weather and a stronger dollar have sent natural gas down nearly forty cents the past few sessions. We are also seeing shipments of natural gas decline as the weather looks to have cooled off in the Southeast. There is some spillover selling coming from crude, as it has broken some key technical support. We are bearish and see natural gas grinding down back to the low end of its rnage, near 400, eventually. We have a profit target of 420.
FOR FREE TWO TRIAL, PLEASE EMAIL YOUR NAME AND NUMBER TO hking@trinvex.com
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